Anti-Syria Coalition Wins Majority In Lebanon's New Parliament

Saad Hariri waves to supporters during a recent political rally in Lebanon

The votes are more-or-less in from Northern Lebanon, the last national region to vote in the first Parliamentary elections since Syria's withdrawl two months ago. According to BBC and ABC it appears certain that the alliance led by Saad Hariri (whose father's assissination triggered the street demonstrations in February that eventually toppled Syrian occupation) will have an absolute parliamentary majority in the new government. After today's vote the totals between the various parties and factions stand as follows:

Hariri-led alliance- 72
Aoun-led alliance - 21
Aman and Hezbollah - 35
Full parliament - 128

Given the deep, sectarian divisions between the armed and radical Hezbollah in the south, the Christian-dominated Aoun in the center and Hariri's Sunni and Druze supporters in the north, it will be interesting to see if Hezbollah, in particular, will be willing to allow someone in Beirut to tell them what they should or should not be doing in their tightly-controlled domain.

For Lebanon to ever return to peace, stability and unity, and for Beirut to ever return to its former reputation as the Paris of the Middle East, Hezbollah must either be willing to exist as a cooperative minority party or else precipitate another civil war....fighting to the death to maintain its stranglehold on the south.

Personally, I do not anticipate Hezbollah giving up any of its "sovereignty" without a very physical and bloody fight. I pray that I am wrong.

In any case, the new government in Lebanon will serve to isolate Syria even further from its few remaining "friends." It would be a good sign, indeed, if these new political realities led Syria to have a change of heart concerning its tacit, if not active, support of the Iraqi "insurgency."

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